[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210530
SWODY2
SPC AC 210530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CRP 15 N DRT 55 ENE P07 50 SE LBB 20 SW CDS 25 SE LTS 35 SW DUA 35 N
TYR 55 S SHV 25 SSE POE 25 SSW LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 20 NE GBN
60 WSW PRC 65 NNE IGM 35 SW BCE 35 SW 4HV 50 SE CNY 35 SSW GUC 45 SE
ALS 15 NW DHT 20 SSE GAG 10 NNW TUL 35 ESE SGF 30 SW PAH BNA 10 N
CHA 30 W ATL 30 NE MGM 30 NW LUL 35 SSE HEZ 25 WSW 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

...TX...

SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A LATE DAY2/EARLY
DAY3 UPPER TROUGH EJECTION INTO TX.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHARPEN
FROM A SFC LOW POSITION OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.  PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST...NEWD INTO LA. HOWEVER THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NWD AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO RESPOND
TO UPSTREAM TROUGH.  RESULTANT WARM SECTOR EXPANSION WILL ALLOW MUCH
OF THE MAIN BODY OF TX TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WITH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY AND
TIMING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND LATE
NIGHT INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH FAVOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z/23RD.  A FORCED SQUALL LINE MAY EVOLVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT WHILE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
WITH BROADER WARM ADVECTION ZONE DOWNSTREAM.

..DARROW.. 11/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.