[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201657
SWODY2
SPC AC 201656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 ENE YUM
35 NNE BLH 60 W GCN 40 NW U17 15 WSW CNY 10 ESE GJT 10 NNE GUC 10
SSE ALS 50 SSE SAF 60 E 4CR 30 S CVS 15 N PVW 10 W CDS 20 NNW SPS 35
SW DUA 45 NNE TYR 30 SE ELD 30 ENE GWO 20 NNE GAD 30 NW AHN 40 NNW
AGS 45 SSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 15 SW DHN 15 E GPT 25 S HUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ATTM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE DESERTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING EWD TOWARD THE SRN
ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.  THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH NUMEROUS LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FRONT NOW LOCATED
VCNTY THE SERN TX COAST WWD INTO DEEP S TX MAY DRIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER N BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS.

...SCNTRL-SERN TX AND SRN LA...
TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY FROM SERN TX INTO SRN LA AS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ACROSS NM...EJECTS INTO THE
LOWER MS VLY.  IN ITS WAKE...WEAK LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACROSS TX...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DIGGING DESERT UPPER LOW...MAY CAUSE
A DECREASE OR WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EWD ACROSS SCNTRL-
SERN TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  RENEWED WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL-NRN TX.  ENOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CLOSER TO THE FRONT.  MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL GIVEN LARGELY ELEVATED NATURE TO THE CELLS.  BUT...IF MORE
SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY CAN FORM IN THE MOISTENING WARM
SECTOR...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AT THIS POINT...TIMING DETAILS OF IMPENDING SHORTWAVES AND QUESTIONS
ON MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL SLGT
RISKS/HIGHER PROBABILITIES.

..RACY.. 11/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.