[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191635
SWODY2
SPC AC 191635

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 15 ENE BGS 40 SW
AMA 50 N CDS ADM 35 WSW TXK 10 S GLH 20 S TUP 20 WSW BHM 15 SSE SEM
15 SW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE PHX 50 W PRC
45 ENE LAS 20 S CNY 35 SE GUC 35 E ABQ 35 W TCS 10 WSW SAD 65 ESE
PHX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN TX COAST INTO SRN LA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 
SUBTROPICAL JETLETS EJECTING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE NRN
MEXICO INTO TX AND THE LOWER MS VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TIMING
OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT.  BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING
TO VCNTY SERN TX COAST SHOULD REMAIN THERE ON SATURDAY AS ANY
MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS REMAIN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN
DESERTS/GREAT BASIN.  THIS FRONT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PERIODIC TSTM CLUSTERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ENHANCED AT TIMES BY WEAK SUBTROPICAL
JETLETS...WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY FROM SERN TX INTO SRN LA. 
LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD FROM TONIGHTS
ACTIVITY INTO SRN LA SATURDAY...THOUGH MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY
FORM VCNTY THE FRONT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
INSTABILITY...THE THREATS FOR SEVERE APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM.

..RACY.. 11/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.