[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190535
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST THU NOV 18 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 40 SW PRC
20 SW GCN 25 NW 4BL 20 NW MTJ 10 N GUC 40 NNW ALS 30 NNW LVS 60 ENE
4CR 35 S CVS 50 WNW CDS 45 WSW CSM 25 N FSI 25 WNW ADM 15 SW DUA 35
NW GGG 30 ENE SHV 40 SW GLH 25 SW TUP 30 NNE TCL 10 NE SEM 25 WSW
PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME VARIABILITY WITH DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  ETA MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND FASTER WITH HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES LATE DAY2...WHILE
THE GFS MAINTAINS A BIT MORE RIDGING ALONG THE TX COAST.  IN EITHER
SCENARIO IT APPEARS WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST FROM THE MIDDLE
TX COAST...NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN
OR HEIGHTEN A COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RESULTANT WARM
SECTOR AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR INLAND
PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION.  LATEST THINKING IS
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE AND SPREAD NEWD FROM
THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO LA.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
STORM ROTATION BUT MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WARRANTS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS ZONE.

..DARROW.. 11/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.