[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181724
SWODY2
SPC AC 181723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 WSW COT
45 WSW JCT 30 ENE BGS 15 SSW TCC 45 SW CAO 10 SSW EHA 35 NW CSM 50
SE SPS 20 E DUA 10 NW PGO 15 NW SGF 40 NW ALN 30 NW EVV 10 SSW BWG
55 SW BNA 25 SSW CBM 60 NNE MOB 15 S PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THE SUBTROPICAL
JET ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AND CARRY THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NRN BAJA INTO NRN MEXICO AND S TX BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NWRN
GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NWWD INTO SERN TX AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

...SERN TX...
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK APPROACHES S TX.  LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE 
LURKING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NWWD ONTO THE CNTRL/UPPER TX COAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PROBABLY BE
DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO S TX.  THUS...ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SERN TX.  INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR IN THE CAPE BEARING LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
SUPERCELLS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY
FORM VCNTY THE RETREATING FRONT ACROSS THE MID-UPPER COASTAL PLAINS
VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND BRIEF TORNADOES COULD INCREASE.  GIVEN THAT THE THESE THREATS
WILL MAINLY EXIST LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..RACY.. 11/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.