[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180655
SWODY2
SPC AC 180654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 WSW COT
45 SW JCT 10 S BGS 45 NE HOB 35 NW ONM 30 SE FMN 30 SW ALS 55 N CAO
10 SSE EHA 15 NW GAG 15 N CSM 20 E LTS 20 E SPS 40 ENE DUA 10 S FSM
25 N UMN FLV 45 SE OMA 50 WNW DSM 25 SSW ALO 20 NW MLI 30 NE PIA 25
SE DNV 35 SE IND 25 ENE SDF 30 S BWG 40 SW BNA 35 ENE TUP 15 WNW CBM
15 NE MEI 60 NNE MOB 15 S PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS A STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COUPLE OF DEAMPLIFYING
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH
WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ONE OF THESE FEATURES...CURRENTLY AN OCCLUDING CYCLONE OVER
OK...WILL OPEN UP AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE
WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. A LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING SRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST TO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TO THE
MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW AND WEAK FROPA. HOWEVER...
MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED BY EARLY FRIDAY
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH. AS WARM/MOIST AIR STREAMS INLAND ACROSS SERN TX ATOP
COOLER SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS...WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY EXPAND LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

...SE TX...
BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NWRN GULF AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS AS WEAKENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS CLOSE
TO SHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK ONSHORE WITH 65-70F
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY WHEN BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND STJ SPEED
MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S TX FROM NRN MEXICO. AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
IMPULSE...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. PROXIMITY TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...STRONG
SHEAR...AND INCREASING ASCENT NORTH OF DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 11/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.