[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 110639
SWODY2
SPC AC 110638

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CST THU NOV 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS SEM BHM CSV LOZ
JKL CRW EKN BWI ACY ...CONT... 45 SE JAX 45 SSE CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OTH MFR 10 SE MHS 55
SSW TVL MER MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EVW VEL GUC ALS SAF
ONM SOW PRC 55 ENE LAS 60 WSW ELY EKO 50 S TWF EVW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. 
UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NERN OK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OPEN WAVE
TROUGH AND MERGE INTO AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION.  MEANWHILE...PACIFIC UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND THROUGH DAY-1...THEN DRIFT ACROSS SRN GREAT BASIN REGION
THROUGH MOST OF DAY-3. STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE
ONSHORE NRN CA LATE IN PERIOD -- DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR
MARGINAL GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL AS IT MERGES INTO WRN SEMICIRCLE OF
GREAT BASIN CYCLONE ALOFT.  AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM
NRN IL SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND SW TX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN
GULF COAST...SRN APPALACHIANS AND SRN PIEDMONT THROUGH DAY-2.

...SERN CONUS...
TSTMS FCST ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO
PORTIONS SRN MID-ATLANTIC.  GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN EARLY IN
PERIOD...AND PERHAPS NEWD TOWARD SERN NC BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY -- INVOF GULF COAST -- SHOULD BE
HORIZONTALLY DISPLACED FROM MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER SRN
APPALACHIANS AND SRN PIEDMONT. MLCAPES 100-500 J/KG ARE PRESENT IN
FCST SOUNDINGS AS FAR N AS ILM/MHX REGION...BASED ON OPTIMAL
MODIFICATION OF ATLANTIC AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F
NEAR COAST.  MOST PROGS INDICATE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS IN THIS
AREA IN PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW...WHICH MAY ENHANCE 0-3
KM HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...GREAT BASIN/4 CORNERS AREA...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PERIOD INVOF COLD-CORE REGION
OF UPPER LOW...WHERE STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE
ARE EXPECTED.  TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING AFTERNOON
WHEN SFC HEATING MAXIMIZES DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES.  PRIND AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.