[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101723
SWODY2
SPC AC 101722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST WED NOV 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 NE AUS 20
WNW PRX 20 S UMN 35 E SGF 30 SE MVN 25 WNW HTS 25 N BKW 30 ESE LYH
25 W ECG 15 NNE HSE ...CONT... 20 NNE SSI 20 NNE AYS 30 NNE VLD 35
SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 65 N LMT 65 NNW
BNO BKE 65 WSW 27U 55 SE RIW 40 NNW LAR 10 W FCL 30 SSW 4FC 25 ESE
GJT 50 E MLF 55 N P38 30 WSW BIH 10 SSW MRY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MS/ERN LA/ERN AR/SW TN/WRN AL...
A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL FILL AND DRIFT EWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A
COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE ONGOING
NEAR THE MS RIVER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE LINE WILL MOVE
EWD INTO MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ENCOUNTERING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15
C AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10000 FT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MS AND
NW AL SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
HOWEVER...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE
WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO
EXIST DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE LINEAR MCS SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS AL DURING THE EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 11/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.