[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 100552
SWODY2
SPC AC 100551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST TUE NOV 09 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD NIR VCT CLL ACT
FTW DUA UMN COU SPI IND UNI 35 S EKN 40 E LYH RWI 70 SSW HSE
...CONT... 35 SSW CHS 65 WNW SAV VLD 55 SW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV LMT BOI IDA LND
CAG MTJ CEZ BCE CDC P38 DRA 55 NW NID MRY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING
AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND ONT...AND
TWO IN A SERIES OF SRN STREAM LOWS.  FIRST LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CO AND NRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION DAY-1.  THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT LOW TO WEAKEN INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES FROM
OZARKS EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY...AND PHASES WITH STRENGTHENING GREAT
LAKES TROUGH.

ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN NM SWWD ACROSS
WRN NEB -- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS TX/AR/LA AND INTO NWRN GULF
DURING DAY-2.  AS UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES...FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE AT
SFC WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS AR/MS.

...MS DELTA AND GULF COAST STATES...
SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BOTH IN COLD CORE REGION OF MIDLEVEL
LOW/TROUGH...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT MARGINAL ATTM BECAUSE OF NUMEROUS
MIXED/OFFSETTING FCST SIGNALS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FCST TO
STRENGTHEN WITH NWD EXTENT FROM GULF COAST...WHILE LOW LEVEL THETAE
WILL BE STRONGER NEAR COAST.  ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKENING WITH TIME...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MAIN CONCERN IS INCOMPLETE MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS ON BUOYANCY.  BROAD AREA OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN
FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. 
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS GULF WILL HAVE BEEN RATHER SHORT...EXCEPT FOR
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHERE
LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE.  WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WEAKENING...AND EXTENSIVE PRECIP FIELDS
LIKELY...EXPECT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOIST
ADIABATIC.  THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH LIKELIHOOD OF PREFRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSOLATION...SHOULD KEEP MLCAPES UNDER 1000 J/KG
OVER MOST AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 11/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.