[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091726
SWODY2
SPC AC 091725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 10 NW LFK 35
NE DAL 30 ENE FSI GAG 25 ESE EHA 35 NW EHA 10 NNE LAA 25 WSW GLD 40
ESE MCK 20 E FNB 30 SSE IRK 25 NW ALN 15 SSW MVN 50 SW HOP 25 ENE
TUP 45 SW TCL 45 NNW PNS PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW P38 35 WSW BIH
25 ESE SCK 45 ENE UKI 30 WNW MHS 55 NNW LMT 50 SSE RDM 35 WNW BOI
SUN 45 W BPI RKS 40 WNW CAG 55 NNE GJT 30 SW GJT 30 NNW U17 15 SSW
P38.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OK...KS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU...
A SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
EWD TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WCNTRL TX NWD
INTO OK ON WEDNESDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F
ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR AS THE WELL-ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH SPREADS
A FOCUSED BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ACROSS ECNTRL OK AND ERN KS BY THE EARLY
EVENING...EXPANDING AND PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. AN
MCS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH ADEQUATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS (0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT). IN
ADDITION...LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-18 C SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL. HOWEVER... THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF THE EVENT OCCURRING MOSTLY AFTER DARK...SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

..BROYLES.. 11/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.