[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 090607
SWODY2
SPC AC 090606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTJ CDC BIH 65 SSW
SVE MHS MFR RDM BKE IDA BPI CAG MTJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HUM ESF 45 NNW
POE LFK 65 NW AUS ABI LTS CSM GAG 45 SSW LBL LAA 45 ESE AKO IML BBW
60 NE OMA CID MLI HUF 40 SW SDF BWG BNA TCL 50 SSW PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FCST IS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT ON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN AZ/SWRN UT. MOST MODELS FCST
THIS FEATURE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2...THOUGH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS N-NE OF
CIRCULATION CENTER ON 09/00Z 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE SOMEWHAT MORE
NRN TRACK MAY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.

AT SFC...STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FCST DAY-1 OVER NRN PLAINS -- IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. BY 11/00Z...EXPECT
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM INVOF ERN UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS IA THEN SSWWD
OVER OK AND W TX.  FRONTAL WAVE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN KS OR OK
AND MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ITS VICINITY.  EXPECT SFC LOW
TO MOVE EWD OVER OZARKS REGION BY END OF PERIOD WHILE FRONT SWEEPS
SEWD ACROSS MOST OF TX/OK.

...SERN PLAINS/OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE LARGELY FROM CONTINENTAL
ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE NOW OVER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY.  DEPTH OF
MOIST LAYER IS CONCERN GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS OBSERVED IN 09/00Z
CRP/BRO RAOBS...AND INDICATED BY ROUGHLY 60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS AND
NLY FLOW NOW OVER WRN GULF.  MARINE MODIFICATION MAY ALLOW POCKETS
OF 50S/LOW 60S F SKIN LAYER DEW POINTS TO REACH NWD INTO PORTIONS
ERN OK AND AR BEFORE FROPA.  WITHOUT THESE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
PROBLEMS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT...BASED ON
ETA/SPECTRAL FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN OK...AR AND NE TX.  ATTM WILL
MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECAUSE OF
THERMODYNAMIC QUESTIONS AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW.  HOWEVER...SOME SUBSET OF THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS GIVEN STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC FORCING...KINEMATIC FIELDS AND
PRESENCE OF ENOUGH HEATING FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.