[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081734
SWODY2
SPC AC 081733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST MON NOV 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 9V9 RSL GAG 30 WSW
PVW 4CR GNT 4BL U28 15 SE SLC EVW 10 E RKS 15 WNW RWL 10 N DGW RAP
9V9.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SPLIT IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WITH SHORT WAVES REMAINING PROGRESSIVE IN NORTHERN BRANCH
OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  MODELS
SUGGEST PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY TUESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET OVER
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.  

AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...
CONTINUES EASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST...DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW
IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST STATES...MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHILE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO REDEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

...GREAT BASIN INTO PLAINS...
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING HAS RE-INFORCED DRYING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND FURTHER DRYING APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THUS...AS CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED.

HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COLD POOL OF AIR /500 MB TEMPS AOB -20C/ EXISTS
AT MID-LEVELS WITH UPPER LOW.  AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL
COOLING SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY...DESTABILIZATION  SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CHARACTERIZED BY PROFILES
EXHIBITING LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS BENEATH
RELATIVELY MOIST MID/UPPER-LEVELS.  

ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
TUESDAY EVENING...ENVIRONMENT ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM.  AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  

BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE UP TO
500 J/KG.  GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...AND FORCING ENHANCED BY APPROACH OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER
JET STREAK...THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
HAIL APPROACHING/POSSIBLY BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 11/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.