[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080551
SWODY2
SPC AC 080550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SUN NOV 07 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OFK LNK BIE HUT P28
GAG AMA TCC LVS 4BL U24 DPG 55 WNW OGD MLD RKS FCL 30 SE SNY 45 NNE
BUB OFK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
CHANNEL ISLANDS OF SRN CA.  STRONG AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG LATEST
SETS OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REGARDING
TIMING/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.  SOMETIME LATE DAY-2 OR EARLY DAY-3...PROG
DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...WITH MANY SOLUTIONS YIELDING 
OPEN WAVE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING CANADIAN NRN
STREAM TROUGH. SPECTRAL MAINTAINS MORE DETACHMENT BETWEEN SRN/NRN
STREAMS AND CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CO/NRN NM.  IN EITHER
EVENT...SFC LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONG REGIONAL CONVERGENCE MAX AND BROAD AREA
OF LOW LEVEL WAA.  MEANWHILE...PRIND STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE NRN CA COAST
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR GEN TSTM RISK THERE.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ARC OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND INVOF LEE
TROUGH -- SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SHIFTING EWD FROM CO/NERN NM ACROSS
PORTIONS WRN KS...PERHAPS SWRN NEB AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.  INTENSE
DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD
FROM SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF CURRENT PACIFIC COAST CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATLY RESTRICTED BY INADEQUATE
MOISTURE RETURN.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ORIGINATE LARGELY FROM
LARGE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE NOW SETTLING SEWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT MUCAPES GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG.  SOME STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR BUT LOW
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC WEAKNESSES PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.