[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021723
SWODY2
SPC AC 021721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 10 SE MLU
35 NE ELD HOT UNO UIN RFD 10 WNW AZO 10 NW FKL LBE 20 WNW SHD 10 SW
ROA GSO RDU 10 NE FAY FLO CAE AHN ATL 35 WNW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW UKI 25 E SJC
10 WSW FAT 25 ENE BFL OXR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMPLIFICATION OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
...BEFORE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY FORMS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF SAN
FRANCISCO BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM
 PATTERN...CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  MORE RAPID ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...CNTRL GULF COAST INTO OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...
BROAD SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST IN NARROW PRE-FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA.  THIS WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE
LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  

DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BE WEAK...BUT COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WHILE THIS MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN...MODELS SUGGEST CORE
OF MID/UPPER JET STREAK AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH WILL LAG TO THE WEST OF WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL LIMIT
MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WILL
IN TURN MINIMIZE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

EXIT REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NORTH
OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYERS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...CALIFORNIA...
AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
EVOLVING COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.