[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011727
SWODY2
SPC AC 011726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA
50 N PDX 15 N ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CRP 10 N NIR
10 NNE TPL 30 SE DAL 15 NNE PRX FSM UMN TBN 65 SW BLV 10 SE FDY 35
SW ERI 10 SE FKL LBE MGW LOZ HSV 10 S SEM 30 SSE MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG/JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...
NORTHERN PORTION OF UPSTREAM CENTRAL STATES TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN SOUTHERN PORTION...AS NEXT SYSTEM
ADVANCES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/NORTHWEST STATES.  THIS IS
CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IN WHICH
EVOLVING CLOSED LOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

...WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LWR OHIO VALLEYS...
DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST AMONG MODELS/MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO
SPEED AT WHICH CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  LATEST RUNS INDICATE UPPER/LOW TROUGH MAY STILL BE AS FAR
WEST AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT...WELL TO THE WEST OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.

DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS /WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF FRONT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO
NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO POSITIVE TILT
ORIENTATION OF UPPER SYSTEM.  THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES.

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND MAY BE ONGOING FROM THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
TUESDAY...WHEN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONGEST.  SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KTS OR SO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT
LOW RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...WITH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG.  THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITS SURFACE HEATING...AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKEN.

SOME STRENGTHENING OF FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES IS AGAIN PROGGED BY MODELS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. 
HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 11/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.