[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010828
SWODY2
SPC AC 010827

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 60 N VCT
30 SSW GGG ARG 10 SSE MVN 30 ENE IND 35 N MFD 15 NW FKL 10 SSE DUJ
AOO 40 SSE EKN 30 SE TRI 30 N AHN 25 SSW MCN 15 ENE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA
50 N PDX 15 N ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM WILL DIG SEWD AND
EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MEXICO TODAY BEFORE EJECTING NEWD 
OVER WRN/CENTRAL TX TO OK BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW.  THE 00Z ETA/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE
EWD PROGRESSION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SINCE
LAST NIGHT HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST EVEN LESS PROGRESSION AND MORE
PRONOUNCED WEAKENING OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS INTRODUCES SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMPLITUDE OF ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

A BROAD BAND OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS TX/SE
OK/AR...REACHING LA/MS TOMORROW.  40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ACT AS LIMITING FACTORS. 
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS LA/MS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND...BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

..THOMPSON.. 11/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.