[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 310740
SWODY2
SPC AC 310738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
LFT 25 SSW POE 35 S TYR 45 SW ADM 40 ESE FSI 25 SE OKC FYV 35 NNE
MKL 45 SSE BNA 45 WSW CHA 15 NNW ANB 40 SW SEM 25 N GPT 25 ESE BTR
20 NE LFT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DRT 20 WSW CSM
30 W END 40 W JLN 25 WNW CGI 40 NNE BWG 50 NE LEX 10 NE UNI 20 WNW
MGW 25 ENE EKN 40 WSW SHD 40 W GSO 45 NNW AGS 15 SE MCN 35 SW DHN 10
ESE PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY...

...GULF COASTAL STATES...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MS
VALLEY WILL STALL IN THE SERN STATES ON DAY 2. LOWER TO MID 70S F
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE
ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH GENERATE A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GULF COAST TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE. BOTH MODELS GENERATE LATE
MORNING CONVECTION WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND
INLAND ACROSS LA AND MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
THIS AREA SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG) WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
STRENGTHEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WOULD
CREATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE
OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SPREADS EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE DAY.

...RED RIVER VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TX EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON DAY 2...WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIFT
NWD DURING THE DAY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ADVECT MID 70S F SFC
DEWPOINTS NWD INTO THE ARKLATEX BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH TX...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER AFTER DARK. BOTH
THE GFS AND ETA ARE CONSISTENT DROPPING A MID-LEVEL JET (70 TO 80
KT) SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A
CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ACROSS ECNTRL OK OR NE TX ON THE
NOSE OF THE MOIST TONGUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW
MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 850
MB. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL VEERING IS FORECAST AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING
8.0 C/KM ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE A HAIL
THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

..BROYLES.. 05/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.