[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 301750
SWODY2
SPC AC 301749

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
ILM 15 SSE FLO 20 SW AGS 40 S CSG 45 ESE MCB 25 NNE CLL 15 WSW ACT
40 N ACT 40 S PRX 35 ENE TUP 40 E BNA 60 N POF 55 SSW SZL 15 SE STJ
35 NNW DSM AUW 50 SE MBL 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 45 WNW ERI 30 ESE BFD
35 WNW ABE 10 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW SYR 10 NE NEL
...CONT... 15 SSE SSI 25 NW AQQ ...CONT... 20 NW BVE 15 N 7R4 60 S
CLL 40 WNW TPL MWL 30 NNW TXK 55 E LIT 20 W DYR 10 N POF 30 NW SGF
20 ENE EMP 10 NNE OLU 20 NW SPW 75 NNE DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE / NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- FORECAST TO BE THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THREAT FOR DAY 2 --
IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO LIE ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN
CANADA SEWD ACROSS ND / MN INTO THE OH / TN VALLEYS. 
MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SERN
ATLANTIC COAST NWD INTO CENTRAL PA AND THEN NWWD INTO HUDSON BAY /
NERN MANITOBA. SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME AS IT -- AND
ASSOCIATED 70 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET -- SLOWLY PINCHES OFF CANADA
PORTION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGE.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST FROM SRN MN EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WITH INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER NERN MANITOBA / HUDSON
BAY.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG / OCCLUDED LOW IS FORECAST OVER NRN MN AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH TRIPLE POINT NEAR SRN LK MI.  COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE LOWER
OH / MID MS VALLEYS INTO AR / NERN TX...WHILE WARM FRONT EXTENDS
ESEWD FROM SRN LOWER MI ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA / CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.

WITH TIME...NRN PORTION OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW SHOULD ELONGATE W-E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXTENDING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM MN TO WRN NY / SRN
ONTARIO.  FURTHER SOUTH...TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST
STATES AS NRN PORTION OF BOUNDARY SURGES EWD.  BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO SRN / ERN TX.

...MIDDLE OH VALLEY / TN VALLEY EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT
/ WITHIN MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION.  STRONG /
GENERALLY WLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS THIS REGION...AS WILL COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE
FOCUS FOR A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. 
ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER -- AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DYNAMICS / KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION.  DURING THE EVENING...STRONGEST PORTION OF LINE SHOULD PUSH
EWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE POST-FRONTAL / GENERALLY
NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW LINGERS
OVER THE AREA.

...E TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO NRN LAY / E TX.  THIS LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM
REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS NERN TX AS ETA INDICATES WEAK
WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
VEERED / SWLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...REGION REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF
MID-LEVEL JET AXIS.  AS A RESULT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS SMALL-SCALE LINES /
BOWS.  ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED WITH
TIME AND THUS MORE PARALLEL WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS
ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN
ATTM...WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT IN NERN TX COULD RESULT IN AREA
OF LOCALLY-BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THUS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ATTM WITH THIS
SCENARIO HOWEVER...WITH MAIN THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL HAIL /
WIND. 

...MIDDLE AND UPPER MS / LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEYS...
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEHIND COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BENEATH COLD /-18 TO -20 C/
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER LOW /
ALONG AND N OF MID-LEVEL JET.  WITH GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG
SURFACE-BASED CAPE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...EXPECT LOW-TOPPED SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. 
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GOSS.. 05/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.