[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 311724
SWODY2
SPC AC 311722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFK 55
E ACT PRX PGO POF BWG 30 ENE BNA HSV TCL MCB POE LFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAR COS SAF 10 WSW
ABQ GNT GUP 4HV 10 SSE SLC WEY COD WRL LAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK PWM 10 SSE
EWB ACY NHK AVL CHA LGC 10 SSE MCN 40 ENE SAV ...CONT... 10 SSE BPT
CLL SAT 45 ESE JCT FTW 40 WNW ADM TUL UNO MTO SPI P35 LNK 60 SSE 9V9
ABR AXN MSP CWA 30 E PLN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON TUESDAY FROM NORTHEAST
TX...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...INTO THE WESTERN TN VALLEY...

...NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN TN VALLEY...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...MAIN
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
PARTS OF AR/MO/KY/TN BY AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. 
AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN TN/NORTHEAST AR...AND MLCAPE
VALUES IN THIS REGION EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN AR INTO WESTERN KY...WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MS AND NORTHERN AL DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

...CENTRAL/EASTERN KY/TN...
OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION WILL TEND
TO LESSEN RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

...OH/PA/NY...
FINALLY...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY POSE A
RISK OF HAIL IN ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORM OVER PARTS OF WV/OH/PA/NY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER DISORGANIZED AND
STRONGLY DIURNAL...WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

..HART.. 05/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.