[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300717
SWODY2
SPC AC 300715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
ILM 40 WSW AGS 15 E SEM 30 W HEZ 35 SSW SHV TXK 10 NNW PBF 60 ENE
MKL 30 NW HTS 20 SW LBE 10 SSE JFK 10 SW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MSY 10 NNE BPT
35 E AUS 30 SE SEP 15 N DUA 40 S HRO 30 N PAH 40 N SDF 35 E MIE 30
NNW LAF 25 WNW UIN 35 N FNB 35 SE 9V9 40 NE ABR 70 ESE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MSS 25 NNE
EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC STATES  AND
PORTIONS OF GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
BY MONDAY SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME NEARLY VERTICAL OVER UPR MS
VALLEY...WHILE STRONG BAND OF WINDS ON S SIDE OF LOW CONTINUE
DRIVING EWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. A WARM
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM DELMARVA NWWD INTO WRN PA MON AM AND SLOWLY
MOVE NWD DURING THE DAY.

THE EXPECTED LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT OH/TN
VALLEYS LIKELY WILL BECONTINUING IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED FORM AND
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AM. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY MID DAY AND EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NRN
GULF STATES AND THEN WWD TO NRN TX WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS OF
VA/MD AHEAD OF THE S/WV TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WIND
MAX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A SWLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL
SPREAD FROM GULF STATES NEWD INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD
OF WIND MAX AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW.  BY AFTERNOON SFC-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER WITH
COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DELMARVA PORTION OF OUTLOOK.  IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT THERE COULD BE A TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL GIVEN THE LOW LCL'S AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PROFILES.  LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO EVALUATE TORNADO
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY YET IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION IN THIS
AREA.

...GULF COAST STATES...
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS AND/OR COLD FRONT WILL BE FOCUS OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND
PORTION OF GULF COAST STATES WWD TO NRN LA/SRN AR. WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WHICH COUPLED WITH 30-40
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRIMARILY
MULTICELLULAR SEVERE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A LESSOR THREAT 
OF LARGE HAIL.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
COLD UPPER LOW OVER THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZEROS.

..HALES.. 05/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.