[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291753
SWODY2
SPC AC 291751

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
CBM GLH 35 NW TXK 20 E FSM 45 ENE COU 10 WSW JVL 25 E SBN 15 SW MFD
20 ENE PKB 10 NE 5I3 40 NW CHA 30 NE CBM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
CHA 25 ESE RMG 45 SW TCL 30 WNW MLU 15 E DAL 55 E OKC 35 WSW JLN 30
WNW SZL 20 W LSE 50 NW EAU 35 WNW AUW 25 SE GRR 25 WSW DUJ 20 SSE
LBE 45 SW EKN 50 E CHA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 25 SSE IPT
25 SSE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SSI 30 WNW ABY
20 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 25 N VCT 45
SE JCT 25 SE MWL 25 NNW CSM 30 NNW P28 15 ENE HLC 30 ENE LIC 45 WSW
LAR 15 S 81V 65 NW GGW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR / SERN MO /
IL / IN / OH / KY / TN / NRN MS AND NWRN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...AND COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE ARKLATEX NWD INTO WI
AND EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE DAY 2
PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM AR / SERN MO / IL EWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- AND
ASSOCIATED 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS.  TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON
AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME...WITH LARGE AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL ADVECT 70S DEWPOINTS NWD TO THE SRN FRINGES OF THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY
EXPECTED FROM A SRN MN LOW CENTER SWWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN OK IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TO AN IL / SERN MO / NWRN AR / NERN TX LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
EWD...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY AND REACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID MS  / TN / OH VALLEYS...
ONGOING CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT
ACROSS IA / IL AND THE OH VALLEY REGION -- WILL COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WILL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
CONVECTIVE MODE -- I.E. PRIMARILY LINEAR VS. MORE ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO.  HOWEVER...BROAD PICTURE
INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS A
LARGE AREA FROM PARTS OF AR / MO / IL EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AS
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS NWD BENEATH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER FLOW.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INVOF
RETREATING WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...INITIAL SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WIND FIELD SPREADS SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE MS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY.  AIRMASS SHOULD
BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG FRONT
SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO A LINE. 
HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WOULD ALSO
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER AHEAD OF
FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  MOST WIDESPREAD PRE-COLD FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT...AND AS
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPERCELL
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE  MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN IL / NRN
IN / OH.

ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD A
LINEAR CONFIGURATION WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS REMAINING MORE
ISOLATED FURTHER S INTO AR GIVEN THAT CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER NORTH.  IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
ALONG LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...GREATEST
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT / LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WOULD LIKELY BE WITH
MORE ISOLATED STORMS -- MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OR INVOF
RETREATING WARM FRONT.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHILE SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE --
LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.