[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271734
SWODY2
SPC AC 271732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
ANB 20 SW GLH 25 S GGG 35 SSE DAL 30 ENE ADM 35 ESE POF 40 E BWG 25
E GSO 15 WNW FAY 40 SE SPA 25 WSW ANB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
GFK 30 SSE BJI 20 S STC 25 ESE FRM 55 NE OMA 30 WNW OMA 35 SW 9V9 50
NNW PHP 20 W DIK 40 NE MOT 45 NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CHS 20 NNE MCN
10 SE 0A8 50 NNE HEZ 55 SE AUS 45 E JCT 50 SW BWD 40 ENE ABI 45 SE
CDS 30 ENE AMA 50 NNE EHA 40 E AKO PUB 45 SSE GUC 4HV 20 WSW SGU 45
WNW DRA 35 N BIH 50 NNW WMC 20 N EUG 15 NNW HQM 10 N BLI ...CONT...
60 WNW RRT 10 S HIB 40 W LNR 35 E UIN 10 ENE VIH 15 NNE OWB 35 NE
LEX 25 W LBE 35 NE BGM 25 WNW EFK 35 NW BML 50 N BML 20 WSW 3B1 35
SW BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN OK / THE ARKLATEX REGION
ENEWD TO THE WRN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY / NRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S.
SHOULD BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH TIME...WHILE SECOND LARGE
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. / ROCKIES.  IN BETWEEN...A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS...WHILE FARTHER SW THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE W-E
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN UPPER TROUGH.

...SERN OK / NERN TX EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN OK /
THE ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE MCS OVER SERN OK AND VICINITY AHEAD OF
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE CONFLUENT FLOW...ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT
AN AXIS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST -- PERHAPS AS FAR E AS THE
WRN CAROLINAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WITH A FEW STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS...AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD
BE GENERALLY UNDIRECTIONAL / WSWLY. 

...MID MO VALLEY INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH CROSSING THE WRN U.S. / ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION.  RESULTING WARMING / SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PLAINS
SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...
SURFACE FRONT RETREATING NWD ACROSS THIS REGION MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED /GENERALLY 500
TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET COUPLED
WITH 25 TO 35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MO VALLEY OF ERN SD / ERN
NEB / WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING -- WITH A LESSER
THREAT WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY-STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD HELP SHIFT MAIN SEVERE THREAT NWD / NEWD.  GIVEN
PRIMARILY ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION FORECAST OVERNIGHT...MAIN
THREAT SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD HAIL.
 

...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BUT GENERALLY LIMITED LAPSE
RATES / INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY WHERE
POCKETS OF LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP.  THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE AND AIRMASS
STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 05/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.