[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280738
SWODY2
SPC AC 280736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
BVO 30 WNW PNC 40 SW P28 50 SSW RSL 15 SE HSI OFK 20 SSW FSD OTG 20
NW FOD 45 WSW DSM 10 NW FLV 30 S TOP 55 NNW BVO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
RRT 30 E STC 55 NW DBQ 40 NE IRK 35 NE JLN 30 S TUL 20 W ADM 55 NE
ABI 70 S CDS 40 S GAG 50 S HLC 15 WNW EAR 60 W YKN 25 WNW ABR 70 N
DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ANJ 15 SSE MBL
30 WSW GRR 35 WSW SBN BMG 25 WNW JKL 10 NNW GSO 50 SW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SAV 30 NE CSG
20 E CBM 30 SE PBF 30 SE TXK 45 S TYR 10 SW AUS 45 NW HDO 45 NW DRT
30 ESE FST 10 E LBB 30 S LBL LAA 45 ENE ALS 30 NW DRO 45 N BCE 50
WNW OGD 45 NW PIH 25 NNE CTB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO CENTRAL AND
ERN KS AND NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. OUTSIDE OF
MDT RISK AREA...

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTRAL U.S...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON DY2 WITH ASSOCIATED COLD UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ERN MT BY
12Z SUN. ETA/GFS BASIC AGREEMENT ON SURFACE FEATURES WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW CENTER SRN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD INTO A SECOND
LOW OVER CENTRAL SD THEN SWWD INTO SRN UT SAT MORNING. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN DAKOTAS WITH THE SD LOW
MOVING NEWD TO VICINITY MN/ND/SD BORDER WHILE A LOW DEEPENS OVER WRN
KS AT THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE.  THE DRY LINE
WILL EXTEND SWD VICINITY OK/TX BORDER TO BIG BEND.

IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE 40-50 KT OF 850MB SLY FLOW WILL
EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. A VERY MOIST GULF
AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NWD BY LATE AFTERNOON TO THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S COMMON AND NEAR 70F ERN NEB/WRN IA
SWD. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM THE RESULT
WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF FRONT/DRY LINE NWD TO CANADIAN
BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL U.S...
STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS NRN PLAINS
INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEAD S/WV TROUGH
ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.  ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DOES NOT ENTER CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS INDICATE PRONOUNCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWD TO ERN NEB/WRN
IA AHEAD OF FIRST S/WV TROUGH.

A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MUCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG COMMON E OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. AS CAP
WEAKENS UNDER THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AND THE STRONG
HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS.  THE AREA
OF GREATEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VEERING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD EXIST FROM  ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD ALONG
DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS REGION  WOULD SEEM AS AN AREA FOR THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.

FURTHER N AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SD AND S/WV
TROUGH...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HELICITY AND POSSIBLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL ERN ND/SD INTO WRN MN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS FURTHER S.

FROM CENTRAL KS SWD THE CAP STRENGTH WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER THE
EXPECTED EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
FORM.

..HALES.. 05/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.