[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 270731
SWODY2
SPC AC 270729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
GFK 50 NE FAR 35 SSW AXN 25 NW OTG 15 ENE YKN 40 WNW YKN 20 SW 9V9
45 E DIK 20 ENE P24 45 NNE MOT 55 NNW GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
RMG 35 SSW MEM 40 WNW TXK 25 NE DUA 40 NW MLC 25 N UMN 50 SSW BLV 50
W LOZ 35 ESE RWI 10 S EWN 35 ENE CRE 20 NNE RMG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CRE 30 SE RMG
CBM 15 W ELD 35 SSW GGG 30 WNW CLL 10 NNW AUS 45 E JCT 20 SSW BWD 20
NW MWL 15 ENE SPS 20 SE CSM 30 SW GAG 30 SW EHA 10 NNW TAD 55 WNW
ALS 30 ESE U17 35 SE SGU 20 E DRA 20 SW TPH 25 SSE SVE 25 N MFR 25 E
AST 40 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 NNW ELO 40 SE ELO 65 SW IWD 25 SSE EAU
20 S CID 30 SSE UIN 50 NNW EVV 25 NW CRW 35 NNW CXY 40 NNE MSV 25
WNW EFK 35 N BML 10 NE PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK TO TN AND NC....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
EXTREME WRN MN....

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKIES...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND.  THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER SW AZ WILL
EJECT ENEWD FROM N TX/SRN OK TO THE MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND AT BEST WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIMITED...AND SHOULD CONSIST OF ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS
FROM SE NEW ENGLAND TO THE CHESAPEAKE AREA.  THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER FROM ERN OK TO TN AND
NC...AND ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AREA.

...ERN OK TO TN AND NC...
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY.  THE EJECTING REMNANTS OF THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF 50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY.  ONE
OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...DAKOTAS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.  STEEP L0W-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 F...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS ERN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE CAP WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...SO A FEW STORMS MAY FORM NEAR
PEAK HEATING INVOF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT.  STORMS ACROSS
THIS AREA COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. OVERNIGHT...A STRONG WAA PATTERN ON
THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
WRN MN AND ERN ND...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..THOMPSON.. 05/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.