[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251747
SWODY2
SPC AC 251744

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
EWN RWI GSO 35 NW AND 25 NE RMG 15 SSE MKL PGO ADM 25 ESE CSM P28
RSL CNK TOP JEF BLV 25 SW LUK UNI PSB BGM ALB 30 E POU 10 SE JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CRE AHN MSL HOT
FTW DRT ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 10 NNW INK 10 SSW HOB ROW ALM 10 W TCS
SAF FMN 35 N GCN SGU U24 VEL BFF 10 SSE 9V9 ABR JMS ISN OLF COD IDA
BOI MHS EUG YKM 50 NE 4OM ...CONT... 35 NNW APN MTW VOK ALO DSM IRK
MTO 50 SE DAY FKL 35 NW ROC ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NE LCI 20 SSE
PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES...THE OHIO/ TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS....

UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES
...READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA/NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO AMPLIFY
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN BRANCH
CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL
ACCELERATE EASTWARD...LIKELY PROGRESSING THROUGH AT LEAST THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...INTENSE MID/UPPER JET IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
LATITUDE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AROUND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET
MIGRATES AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN NORTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH.

...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY...
AS SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK TOPS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...MODELS
SUGGEST BELT OF STRONGEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DEVELOPING
JUST TO ITS SOUTH...FROM PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS NEAR MAIN EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH WILL EITHER REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR PRESS A BIT
SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF THREAT...PRIMARILY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT 26/12Z.  CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY THIS ACTIVITY
MAY LIMIT INSOLATION...BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AROUND
70F...ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1000 TO 2000 J/KG.

GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK
HEATING...WITH HODOGRAPHS/LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LIKELY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY PERSIST WITH DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PROGRESS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT
PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  AIDED BY FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK STATE.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY
THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM OF
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST INHIBITION MAY REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONNECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN VERY MOIST WARM
SECTOR ACROSS OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS.  NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MID DAY...WHEN MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FIELDS MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK...MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO
WARM...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NORTH OF
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE
OZARKS.

..KERR.. 05/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.