[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260748
SWODY2
SPC AC 260746

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI 20
E FKL 30 SE HGR 10 NNE WAL ...CONT... 25 S EWN 20 NW CLT 20 SSE TYS
30 S BNA 20 NNE FTW 30 N DRT 30 N P07 20 NNE CDS 10 N FLV VOK 25 ENE
MTW 30 WSW HTL 45 SSE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 30 WSW BIS
15 SSW REJ 20 SSW CPR 45 WNW RWL 35 NNE DPG 25 ESE BAM 35 NW TVL 45
E UKI 35 WSW MHS 30 ENE PDX 20 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 30 S GON
...CONT... 20 ENE CRE 30 SE AND 25 ENE TUP 40 S PBF 50 SW TYR 50 SSE
DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW P07 55 N MRF 35 ENE ELP 55 NE DUG 25 WNW SAD
SOW 25 WSW GNT 10 SW SAF 30 NNW EHA 25 NW CNK 10 N MSP 40 S IWD 35
ESE ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID
MS/OH VALLEYS...EWD TO PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST....

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TOMORROW AS A DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC MOVES INLAND OVER THE PAC NW...AND A
SRN STREAM TROUGH /NOW OVER SRN CA/ EJECTS ENEWD OVER AZ/NM TO W TX.
 DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PAC NW TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE NRN
PLAINS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE...THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM NW TX TO THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT
NWD/NEWD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE TX/OK AREA WHILE
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AT THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION INVOF NW
TX...IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH.

...SRN PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NW
TX AND SPREAD ENEWD AS ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
INTO OK DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK
GRADIENTS AND ONLY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NW TX.  THE COMBINATION
OF DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS...SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

...MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL RETURN
NWD/NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT.  DAYTIME HEATING AND ERN EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER FROM THE ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE
INSTABILITY AS FAR N AS SRN WI AND LOWER MI...WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MO/IL AREA.  A BROAD AREA WILL BE AT
RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORM CLUSTERS AND/OR
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT...THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED
FOCUS FOR INITIATION ATTM.

...ID AREA...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE DEEP TROUGH REACHES THE PAC NW COAST BY
TOMORROW NIGHT.  PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME MORE MOIST WITH
TIME...SUPPORTING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..THOMPSON.. 05/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.