[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250733
SWODY2
SPC AC 250731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
HSE 30 WNW SOP 55 NNE HSV 20 NE ADM 30 ESE CSM 40 S P28 35 W CNU 30
NW SDF 35 NNW CRW 20 S AOO 25 NNE CXY 20 ENE ABE 15 S JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SSI 40 SSW AGS
15 ENE ATL 40 NE CBM 30 WSW PBF 15 W PRX 30 N DAL 45 SSW BWD 30 NW
DRT 40 ESE P07 35 WSW P07 30 SW FST 15 N FST 55 SSW LBB 20 SSE PVW
10 S AMA 35 NNE CAO 30 NW TAD 25 NNE DRO 25 NE U17 25 N 4HV 60 N GJT
40 SW BFF 30 NE MHN 45 NNE BUB 10 NE OLU 35 SSE BIE 10 S FLV 15 WSW
UIN 15 ESE FWA 35 SE DTW ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NE LCI 20 SSE PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST....

...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WILL MOVE
EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK CYCLONE
 FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE NRN VA/PA AREA DURING THE DAY
TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG AN AXIS
FROM OK TO KY DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  ELSEWHERE...SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA...BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE QUITE SMALL.  FARTHER S...A SRN
STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER AZ...THOUGH L0W-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA.

...OK TO KY/TN...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY INVOF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS OF OK/KS/MO/AR.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND S OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHILE SMALL SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE EWD
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE DAY WITHIN A BELT OF 50-70 KT WLY FLOW. 
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY EMERGE FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AND DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TN/KY DURING THE DAY WITH THE THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK INTO NRN AR.  DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER THIS AREA BENEATH 60-90 KT FLOW IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER...WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ENEWD FROM THE NRN VA/PA AREA TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.
 NEAR AND S OF THE LOW TRACK...AND ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE COOL MARITIME
INFLUENCE...WHILE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY FARTHER S/SW IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

..THOMPSON.. 05/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.