[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241826
SWODY2
SPC AC 241725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
ART MSV 25 SSW ACY ...CONT... ILM AVL DYR FSM MLC 55 NNE ABI 75 S
CDS 20 WSW CDS 35 NNE CDS END MKC BRL 20 NNW CGX 55 N MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PBG BID
...CONT... DAB 15 SSE CTY CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 30 S FTW 30
SE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF PVW 20 WSW TCC ALS CEZ 65 S
BIH SCK 65 SE RBL OWY IDA 25 N DGW MHN MCK 55 SSW LAA 20 SE CAO 35 N
AMA 60 S LBL CNK LNR 35 SE CWA 25 SW RHI 45 SE DLH 50 WSW HIB 20 NNW
INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA
SWD INTO NC....

...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE
PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC. WSWLY FLOW AT 50-60 KT WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH MO INTO
OK/NWRN TX BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION.
THE ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING
ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO AT 12Z NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS CONVECTION AND/OR ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE DAY WITH STORMS
INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MODERATELY/STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IS SUGGESTIVE OF LINEAR STORMS/EMBEDDED BOWS MOVING EWD
AT SPEEDS 40+ KT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION
OF THE GREATEST THREAT ...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM.

...WRN NY/PA...
ETA/GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A LINE/BAND OF CONVECTION EWD INTO
THE AREA AFTER 00Z. THIS SHOULD BE THE SAME STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE LOWER THAN ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE
STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

...KY/TN/NC/VA...
EXPECT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TO MOVE EWD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL WEST OF
THE AREA...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.
DEEP LAYER OF 30-40 KT AND MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL.


...SRN PLAINS...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX
DURING THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT IN SWRN OK/WRN TX NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND
DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TRIPLE POINT AND FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 30-40 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE.

..IMY.. 05/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.