[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231735
SWODY2
SPC AC 231733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
UIN 40 SSE P35 15 ENE FNB 40 S SUX SUX 30 SSW SPW 20 SW MCW 45 NW
DBQ 30 ESE DBQ 40 SW RFD 15 WSW BMI 40 ESE UIN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
ACY 30 ENE CXY 15 NNW IPT 25 NNW JHW 60 N ROC 30 WSW SLK 20 NW RUT
30 W EEN 20 SSE BDL 15 ESE ISP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
FNT 25 SSE DTW 35 WNW DAY 45 SW LUK 25 NW TYS 40 SW CSV 30 W HOP 25
S TBN 20 N JLN 20 E ICT 10 SE HUT 10 WSW CNK 30 NNE GRI 65 W YKN 15
SW BKX 25 NE RST 20 NNW MBS 30 ENE FNT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB CTY 35 WSW
TLH 20 SW TOI 20 S CBM 35 SW UOX 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 30 W
SEP 45 N JCT 35 W SJT 15 S BGS 45 NNE BGS 45 E AMA 40 ESE LBL 30 ENE
DDC RSL 30 SSW HLC 55 ENE LAA LHX 30 S MTJ 35 ESE 4HV 45 ESE ELY 35
NNE BAM 70 NNW LOL 35 SW TVL 35 NW SAC 20 ENE ACV 25 NNE OTH 25 ENE
HQM 10 SSE SEA 20 WSW YKM 30 NW PDT 35 NE S80 35 W MQM 20 WNW WRL 50
NNW DGW 15 N BFF 25 SSE AIA 20 SSE MHN 20 WSW ANW 20 WNW PIR JMS 15
ENE GFK 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 30 ENE PSM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF IA...EXTREME NRN MO AND EXTREME NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...NERN PA
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MS VLY WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS
UPSTREAM IMPULSE EJECTS EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD TROUGH WILL CROSS CNTRL
NY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE OH
VLY.  TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NWD INTO ERN
NEB...SRN IA/NRN MO AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE.  THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXPECTED TO SURGE SEWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS.

...MID MO VLY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES AREA...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VLY INTO THE UPPER MS VLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

H5 HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE LOW LEVEL
RESPONSE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN ADVECTING MID-UPPER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD INTO ERN NEB AND SWRN IA MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500
J/KG.  SOME CONCERN EXISTS ON THE RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
RETARDING HEATING ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE IN STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS
DEVELOPING NWD INTO THE MID MO VLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AS CINH IS ERODED BY HEATING...TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR
SOMEWHERE OVER ERN NEB/SERN SD AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS
GIVEN 50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WITH INITIAL STORMS FROM ERN
NEB INTO CNTRL/SRN IA WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL EXHIBIT VERY FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND LOWERING LCLS. 

A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
IA/EXTREME SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD LOWER MI...NRN IL AND NRN
IND. 

...ERN KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO OK...
ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP/BACKBUILD ALONG SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM NRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO NCNTRL
OK MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO
SUPERCELLS DURING THE EVENING...BUT LIKELY TREND TOWARD CLUSTERS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ
INCREASES.  OTHER STORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLD SUPERCELLS...COULD DEVELOP
SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN OK LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
HAIL.  THESE MAY MERGE WITH THE SWD MOVING STORMS LATER IN THE
EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL OK/SERN KS.

...LWR OH/TN VLYS...
TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LWR OH/TN
VLYS AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS IS A
CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK GIVEN THAT SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.  STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

...NY/NCNTRL PA AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...
MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY SURFACE LOW AS
STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY DURING PEAK HEATING. 
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN EWD
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
 

...NERN CO...
NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING.
 BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT IF A
STORM DEVELOPS AND SURVIVES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL AUGMENT HAIL/WIND PRODUCTION.

...SERN STATES...
WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY SRN APPALACHIANS
AND ALONG LEFT-OVER BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON. 
WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT PULSE IN NATURE WITH RISKS OF
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE.

..RACY.. 05/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.