[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230736
SWODY2
SPC AC 230734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
UIN 45 NE MKC 15 ENE FNB 40 S SUX SUX 30 SSW SPW 20 SW MCW 45 NW DBQ
40 W JVL 15 S RFD 30 NE PIA 10 ESE UIN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
FNT 25 SSE DTW 35 WNW DAY 45 SW LUK 25 NW TYS 40 SW CSV 30 W HOP 25
S TBN 30 NNW JLN 15 WSW BIE 65 W YKN 15 SW BKX 25 NE RST 20 NNW MBS
30 ENE FNT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
NEL ILG 10 S IPT 20 NW ITH 30 NNE SYR 30 WSW SLK 20 NW RUT 30 W EEN
25 WSW BDL 35 E NEL 25 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB CTY 35 WSW
TLH 20 SW TOI 20 S CBM 35 SW UOX 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 30 W
SEP 45 N JCT 35 W SJT 15 S BGS 45 NNE BGS 40 NNW CDS 50 ENE GAG 30
NNE P28 RSL 30 SSW HLC 55 ENE LAA LHX 30 S MTJ 35 ESE 4HV 45 ESE ELY
35 NNE BAM 70 NNW LOL 35 SW TVL 35 NW SAC 20 ENE ACV 25 NNE OTH 25
ENE HQM 10 SSE SEA 20 WSW YKM 30 NW PDT 35 NE S80 35 W MQM 20 WNW
WRL 50 NNW DGW 15 N BFF 25 SSE AIA 20 SSE MHN 20 WSW ANW 20 WNW PIR
JMS 15 ENE GFK 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 30 ENE PSM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...NRN
MO...AND NW IL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AND
EXTENDING INTO TN/KY AND LOWER MI....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN NY AND PA....

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE ACROSS IA AND
ADJACENT STATES...

...MIDWEST AREA...
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
PERIOD AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTS
EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY.  A REMNANT LEE 
CYCLONE ACROSS NEB/KS WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS KS WHILE A WAVE
DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS IA TO WI ALONG THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/ WILL SURGE NWD FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
ERN NEB AND IA...BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THE NET
RESULT WILL BE STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS NE KS/ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4500
J/KG EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF NE
NEB/SE SD/NW IA AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS IA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE COMBINATION OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50
KT...THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. 
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION MAY MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN IA/NRN
MO/NRN IL...AND PERHAPS REACHING LOWER MI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

...NE STATES...
A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO PA/NY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NY/NEW
ENGLAND.  A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE SW...ALONG WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...OK/NW TX AREA...
THE REGION OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL N/NE OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING ALONG A WEAK DRYLINE MAY ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.  IF THUNDERSTORMS
FORM...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

...NE CO AREA...
NELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO BY
MONDAY EVENING.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND.

..THOMPSON.. 05/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.