[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240757
SWODY2
SPC AC 240756

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
SYR 40 S UCA 20 NNW PHL NHK 35 NW RIC 10 E SSU 25 NNE BNA FSM 40 SW
TUL 10 E PNC OJC 30 WSW CGX 60 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 30 NNW DIK
20 NW REJ 50 SSE GCC CYS 25 ESE DEN 30 WSW COS 45 S MTJ 30 E BCE 50
W P38 35 SE BIH 30 NNE MER 60 NW TVL 25 W TWF 25 WSW 3DU 70 NW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DAB 10 NW CTY 35
SSE CSG 20 W ANB 20 NNW TUP 35 W PBF 40 SW PRX 30 S FTW 30 SE JCT 65
SSE DRT ...CONT... 105 S MRF 50 S LBB 20 W GAG 10 SW MHK 35 W CID 25
SW LNR GRB 40 NE RHI 40 SSE DLH 45 WSW HIB 15 WNW INL ...CONT... 25
N PBG 25 E BID.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO AREA ENEWD TO THE
PA AREA....

...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION...WHILE A BELT OF RELATIVELY FAST WSWLY FLOW PERSISTS
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE OH VALLEY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM
TROUGH...AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM NRN
MN TO ONTARIO...WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES
SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI.  A
WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH
VALLEY TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE FRONT...WHERE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON. 
THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH ROUGHLY 7 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER A BROAD SWATH IN
THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS OUTLOOK CENTERS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO EARLY DAY 2...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  A
SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THOUGH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO
BE RELATED TO A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN
EACH MODEL.  GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SORT OF
FEEDBACK...WILL OPT TO INCLUDE A RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH OF MODEST
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..THOMPSON.. 05/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.