[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220734
SWODY2
SPC AC 220732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
MSS 10 SSW BML PWM 30 NE BOS EWB 15 NE ISP 15 NW TTN 25 S IPT 35 WNW
PIT 20 S IND 35 WNW CGI 35 W TBN 25 WNW IRK RST 30 WNW EAU 65 E MQT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
ANW CDR 55 WNW CDR 10 SW 81V 30 SSE 4BQ 25 NNW REJ 20 S Y22 15 NNW
HON 30 SE MHE 35 SW YKN 20 SE ANW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 15 WSW BHB
...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 45 N PIE 25 E TLH 35 N ABY 30 E ANB 15 NNE HSV
35 SE MKL 40 S JBR 25 NW LIT 40 S PGO 20 SW PRX 40 SSW DUA 45 WSW
ADM 35 S OKC 25 SSW PNC 45 E ICT FLV 30 NW FNB 35 WSW EAR 20 SSE SNY
30 NW FCL 25 W VEL 35 ESE EKO 45 E BNO 25 E PDX 15 SW SEA 70 E BLI
70 WNW FCA 20 E HLN 40 NNE BIL 25 NNW GDV 40 N BIS 55 WNW AXN 15 SSE
BRD 80 ENE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SD AREA....

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TWO
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.  THE FIRST TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL EJECT ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE NEWD OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING
SWD OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA...WILL ROTATE EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...
A SURFACE LOW INVOF NRN IA/SE MN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
NEWD ACROSS WI TO UPPER MI BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  ONE OR MORE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS NERN IA/WI IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE DAY
FROM CENTRAL/NRN WI TO UPPER MI.  FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SE WI/NRN IL AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD TO
NRN INDIANA AND LOWER MI.  50-70 KT SWLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
AREA.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES...THOUGH
PRONOUNCED BACKING WIND WITH HEIGHT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES NOT
APPEAR IDEAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES.

FARTHER S...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY LESS
CERTAIN FROM SRN MO TO ERN OK ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH.  ANY
STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.  IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.

...NRN PA/NY/INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE
SURFACE FRONT GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
...ONE OF WHICH MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. 
THE 00Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND IN SMALLER CLUSTERS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN A
TENDENCY FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER PA/NY DURING THE DAY AND IN THE
WAKE OF ANY EARLY CONVECTION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  STILL...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR THE
SURFACE FRONT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST EJECTING TROUGH.  HOWEVER...LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS /INVOF WRN NEB OR SW SD AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/ WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NERN WY ACROSS WRN SD TO NW NEB.  STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY EVOLVING
INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS SD OR NRN NEB OVERNIGHT.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND E OF
A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE APPALACHIANS.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE INTERIOR
CAROLINAS TO VA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SOME HAIL.

..THOMPSON.. 05/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.