[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211734
SWODY2
SPC AC 211732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
SBY 45 SW DCA 15 ENE PKB 15 ENE IND 25 N ALN 35 ESE STJ 30 S MHK 10
SW ICT 25 WNW P28 40 S EAR 25 WNW MCK 30 ENE AKO 30 NE CYS 35 E DGW
20 SSE 81V 30 WSW REJ PHP ANW 60 WSW YKN 30 NW OTG 10 ENE OSC
...CONT... 35 NE PBG 25 ENE BML BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CTB HVR GDV 55
SSW JMS 50 SSW DLH ANJ ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 45 SSE HUL ...CONT...
SSI AQQ ...CONT... 45 SE GPT LUL CBM MSL 35 NE BNA 45 ENE BWG 35 E
OWB 50 NNE PAH 50 W MDH 15 ESE VIH 35 S SZL 40 NNE PNC 15 NW SPS 55
SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 30 NW FST 40 E PVW 40 SSE DDC
40 W RSL 30 N HLC 35 N HLC 40 NW GLD 30 ESE DEN 15 W 4FC 25 W CAG 30
NNW VEL 50 NW PUC 10 SE DPG 20 SE EKO WMC 4LW RDM 10 NW DLS 50 ENE
BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/NRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DE AMPLIFY AND
EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. 
THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINING A BELT OF MODEST
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ARCING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NEW ENGLAND WWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. LEE LOW OVER SRN NEB AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ALONG THIS FRONT INTO THE CORN BELT
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL KS...WRN
OK AND W TX.  THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...GREAT LAKES STATES TO NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SEVERAL POTENTIAL MCS/S WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS.  A SEVERE MCS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORN BELT
THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER OH VLY EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.  THIS TSTM
CLUSTER MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST WLYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. OTHER MCS/S WILL ORGANIZE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. MCS
TRACKS WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER NWD WITH TIME... SHIFTING INTO NY AND
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED
FROM PRECEDING MCS/S MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT
LATITUDINAL POSITION OF SEVERE THREATS.  BUT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE BROAD CORRIDOR.

...PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY...
ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE DAY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.  DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED FROM MCS/S
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY IN THE DAY.  PRIND
THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS NERN NEB AND SRN IA TO
NRN IL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSLATE
NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AIR MASS RAPIDLY RECOVERING.  PRESENCE
OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 4000-4500 J/KG.

AS CINH WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE VCNTY
SURFACE LOW OVER ECNTRL/SERN NEB AND WRN IA.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID GROWTH INTO
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.  PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO MDT RISK AS
BOUNDARY/WAVE CYCLONE PLACEMENT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ORGANIZING INTO A DAMAGING WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION
AND ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE TSTM FORMATION OVER SWRN SD AND
ERN WY...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NEB PANHANDLE AND AS FAR N AS MT
FOOTHILLS.  THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...STRONGLY
CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

BECAUSE OF STRONG CAPPING AND POTENTIAL VERY HIGH LCL FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM...MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE
PROBABILITIES EXIST DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG
DRYLINE...FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS W TX.  ACTIVITY WOULD BE
STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND NOT LONG-LIVED.

...INTERIOR NWRN STATES...
A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY E
OF CASCADES...INCLUDING SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION...AS INSOLATION
AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WEAKEN CINH.  STRONG LARGE SCALE
COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH HEATING AND 35-50
KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT WIND/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

..RACY.. 05/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.