[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190731
SWODY2
SPC AC 190729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
PBG 25 W ELM 40 W MRB 25 NW SSU 20 SW SDF 45 SSE OJC 45 SSW GLD 55
NW AKO 40 NE AIA 10 WSW FSD 35 E ALO 25 NE JVL 85 E ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT 50 SW JMS
15 SE AXN 20 SW RHI 35 ENE ESC 25 N ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL 20 E
BWI 25 SW NHK 25 ESE ORF ...CONT... 30 E JAX 45 S CTY ...CONT... 25
SE 7R4 25 SSW HEZ GWO 35 ENE JBR 45 NW UNO 15 WNW CNU 25 SW DDC 45
SSW DHT 20 SW CNM 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 SSW DMN 25 N ABQ 10 ENE ASE
50 ESE VEL 15 E PUC 40 ESE DPG 15 NE ENV 55 SSE EKO 30 ESE BIH 20 NW
MER 25 NE UKI 40 NE ACV 35 NW RDM 30 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY AND MID MS
VLY INTO THE LWR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ON
THURSDAY AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM E PACIFIC
BLOCK. SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPR MS VLY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SWEEP E FROM THE UPR GRT LKS INTO NEW ENG...IN
TANDEM WITH BAND OF STRONG WLY FLOW IN NRN STREAM OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC.  THIS WILL FAVOR AN EWD EXTENSION OF EXISTING SRN PLNS
RIDGE...AND A SLIGHT REBOUND OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID MS VLY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR GRT LKS IMPULSE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MI TO CNTRL IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 
NRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD SWEEP E TO THE NEW ENG CST BY 12Z
FRIDAY...WHILE TRAILING SWRN PORTION BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
MS/LWR MO VLYS.  WRN END OF SAME FRONT SHOULD REDEVELOP N ACROSS NEB
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE LIFTING
NE FROM GRT BASIN TROUGH.

...LWR GRT LKS/UPR OH VLY INTO WRN NY/PA...
COLD FRONT CROSSING SRN ONTARIO AND THE LWR GRT LKS SHOULD SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY
AS BAND OF 40-50 KT WNW MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION.  FORECAST
WIND PROFILES AND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
MARGINAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION /ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. 
BUT COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...DIFFLUENT UPR LEVEL FLOW AND
MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS.  AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL.

...LWR MO VLY INTO MID MS VLY...
SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY EXIST
ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE MID MS VLY
REGION.  COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON EDGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND 30-40 KT
DEEP WLY SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY... SETUP SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS... INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.  

THE STORMS IN MO/IL/SRN IA AND IND MAY WEAKEN THURSDAY EVENING.  BUT
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO MUCH OF IA
AND...EVENTUALLY...SRN SD/MN.  AMPLE /40+ KT/ CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 2000 J/KG/ WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING SURFACE
WINDS.

..CORFIDI.. 05/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.