[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181730
SWODY2
SPC AC 181728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
GRI 25 NE HON 30 NE ATY 15 WNW RST 15 N LNR 25 NNE BRL 15 N BIE 35
NNW GRI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE
OSC 35 WSW TOL 50 ESE LUK OWB 20 NE COU 10 W MHK 30 NE IML 35 N PHP
30 W MOT 60 NNE DVL 30 NE ELO 40 N ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 45 WNW ROW
30 E CVS 25 SSW LBB 20 SW MAF 30 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ART 10 ESE BFD
40 SE PSB ACY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 15 S POE 15 NNE TUP 50 SSW CKV
35 NNW DYR 35 W POF 40 N JLN 20 ESE SLN 35 SE GLD 35 NE DEN 15 ESE
U28 30 WNW U24 60 NE EKO 15 SW WMC 10 SE SAC 45 ESE EKA 35 NNW MFR
60 NE RDM 30 WSW YKM 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 25 ENE HLN 50
SE LVM 55 N DGW 25 SSE 81V 15 NW REJ 70 NNE OLF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD...ERN NEB EWD
INTO SWRN MN...EXTREME SWRN WI AND MOST OF IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
STATES EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...WITH STRONGEST WLYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE NATION.  MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TODAY WILL TRACK EWD TO THE NRN GTLKS REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY...
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF NRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER NRN SASK.  LOWER
AMPLITUDE WAVE TRAIN WILL CARRY WEAKER JETLETS FROM THE ERN PAC
BASIN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ON THE NRN EDGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER KS...WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG SRN PART OF THE
WLYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE LOWER MO VLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT SWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND/
NRN MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL
REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS A LEE-LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE DAKS AND MOVES EWD.  THIS FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY.

...LWR MO/UPPER MS VLYS EWD TO THE GTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST...
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE DAKS SWD INTO
NEB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AIDED BY SLY LLJ/WARM ADVECTION. 
THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME TOWARD THE NRN GTLKS
REGION AS THE  STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD. HAIL/
DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT
MUCAPE/CAPE-BEARING SHEAR.

MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. AS WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS NWD...AIR MASS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY NWD.  MOIST SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT UPPER 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS NWD BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND
CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION...WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500
J/KG IN THE LWR MO VLY.

AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AS 1/ EJECTING MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE MIGRATES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND 2/ LOW AMPLITUDE
IMPULSE MOVES ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER MO VLY.  THUS...OVERALL SET-UP SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MO RVR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEATING...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT AID IN WEAKENING
CINH.

MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW OF 60-70 KTS ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL CURRENT OF 25-30
KTS WILL CREATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...VERY LARGE HAIL COULD
RESULT ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
INITIATION IN ERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND WRN IA /WRN PART OF
MDT RISK AREA/.

ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MCS OVERNIGHT...
DEVELOPING/MOVING EWD INTO WI...EXTREME NRN PARTS OF BOTH IND/IL AND
POSSIBLY MI VERY LATE. FAVORABLE WLY FLOW WOULD LIKELY ENCOURAGE
BOWS/LEWPS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL.  DAMAGING
WIND THREAT MAY BE PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE MDT
RISK AS SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO BOWS. 
LATER...KINEMATIC SET-UP ALSO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS INTO IA/ERN NEB
OVERNIGHT.

...MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AIDING CURRENT TSTM COMPLEX OVER MO WILL TRACK EWD
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. 
DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE MOIST INFLOW
COINCIDENT WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT.
 THESE TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW IN THE MEAN WLY FLOW WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.  PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MIGHT BE UPGRADED TO A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ONCE TIMING OF UPSTREAM
WAVE IS MORE CERTAIN.

OTHERWISE...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
IL/IND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...LIS OF
MINUS 4.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK AREA...WITH MOST OF THE
SEVERE THREAT LIKELY REMAINING NW OF THE REGION.

..RACY.. 05/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.