[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191725
SWODY2
SPC AC 191723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
PBG 15 NNW BFD 15 NE MGW 25 NNW SSU 25 SW JKL 35 WSW SDF 15 E BIE
EAR 25 SW AKO 30 ENE FCL 55 NE AIA 30 E 9V9 20 SW FRM 20 NNE DBQ 15
NW MKE 85 E ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW MOT 25 ESE BIS
50 NNE ATY 25 SE STC 25 SSE CWA 35 ENE ESC 25 N ANJ ...CONT... 25 SE
PSM 35 SW BGM 25 SSE HGR 25 ESE ORF ...CONT... 30 E JAX 45 S CTY
...CONT... 25 SE 7R4 25 SSW HEZ GWO 35 ENE JBR 30 NNE VIH 50 SSW HSI
15 SSW GCK 25 E AMA 15 SSE MAF 10 SSW P07 ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 50
NNW HOB 30 SW LAA 35 ESE DEN 40 E CAG 25 S U17 45 E SGU 20 WNW SLC
15 NE ENV 55 SSE EKO 30 ESE BIH 20 NW MER 25 NE UKI 40 NE ACV 35 NW
RDM 30 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
NATION ON THURSDAY.  UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NWD
THROUGH THE MS VLY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
STRONGEST WLYS ARCING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE GTLKS AND NEW ENGLAND...FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND MIGRATE EWD TOWARD NY AND THE UPPER OH
VLY.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY...
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON THURSDAYS SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WEDNESDAYS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR
THURSDAY.  

LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER
PARTS OF THE CNTRL GTLKS.  THESE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN
THE WLYS AND KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO QUICKLY
TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LOWER GTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY DURING PEAK
HEATING.  IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT GIVEN HEATING AND RAPID RECOVERY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THESE REGIONS THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS WITH ATTENDANT
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
SHARP GIVEN THAT OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF ME WILL
CARRY MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND/NY AND THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. 

MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE GTLKS MCS
FROM IA INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER RIDGE/MIDLEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE NOSES NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CAP WILL BECOME
AN ISSUE.  IF REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING CAN ERODE CINH
ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.  DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING AS TSTM CLUSTERS WITH POSSIBLE BOWS/LEWPS EVOLVE
IN WLY FLOW REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS THE LLJ REDIRECTS FARTHER WEST WITH TIME.

FINALLY...AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING WRN U.S.
TROUGH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVEL NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND
MUCH OF IA.  THESE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SRN SD/MN
BY EARLY FRIDAY.  40 KTS OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND MUCAPE TO 2000
J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS.  

THOUGH THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND THREAT
WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA...GIVEN LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL SCENARIO AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST PROCESS...
PLACING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IN ANY GIVEN AREA IS
DIFFICULT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OVER HALF OF THE 09Z SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS W TX...ERN NM AND SWRN KS. GIVEN A
TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED
STORM...THOUGH THE SHEAR MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS GIVEN THAT
STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE REGION.  AS
SUCH...LOCALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL COULD OCCUR.

...CNTRL ROCKIES AREA...
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING NEWD FROM BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TSTMS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES REGION.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL... SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TSTMS THAT MAY YIELD ISOLD
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY.. 05/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.