[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180755
SWODY2
SPC AC 180753

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
GRI 25 NE HON 30 NE ATY 15 WNW RST 15 N LNR 25 NNE BRL 15 N BIE 35
NNW GRI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE
OSC 35 WSW TOL 50 ESE LUK OWB 20 NE COU 10 W MHK 30 NE IML 10 NE PIR
25 SSE P24 40 W DVL 10 NNE DLH 100 NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 45 WNW ROW
30 E CVS 25 SSW LBB 20 SW MAF 30 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ROC 45 W ELM
30 S IPT ACY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 15 S POE 15 NNE TUP 50 SSW CKV
PAH 25 SE VIH 30 NNE CNU 35 W HUT 40 E GLD 35 NE DEN 15 ESE U28 30
WNW U24 60 NE EKO 15 SW WMC 10 SE SAC 45 ESE EKA 35 NNW MFR 60 NE
RDM 30 WSW YKM 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 25 ENE HLN 50 SE LVM
55 N DGW 25 SW RAP 30 ESE REJ 70 NNE OLF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/SE SD/IA AND
SRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY E INTO THE
MID/UPR MS VLYS AND UPR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT NE PACIFIC BLOCK WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 ON WEDNESDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS
THE SRN PLN/LWR MS VLY.  NRN PART OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E FROM MT TO THE UPR GRT LKS DURING THE
PERIOD AS NRN STREAM SPEED MAX SWEEPS E/SE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
/MANITOBA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WSWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 75 KT LIKELY OVER MN/WI BY 12Z THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...APPROACH OF MT DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...ALONG WRN END OF SURFACE FRONT
NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY.  THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND
ACCELERATE E/NE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT MOVES/REDEVELOPS RAPIDLY NE INTO LWR MI/OH.

...LWR MO VLY TO MID/UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER PARTS OF THE LWR
MO AND MID/UPR MS VLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH
WIND AND TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.

CLUSTERS OF WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WRN DAKS SE INTO NEB/MO.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE HAIL
AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/
INSTABILITY.

A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
DAY AS CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF MT UPR IMPULSE ENHANCES LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS REGION.  COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING... FRONTAL
UPLIFT...CONTINUED RICH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB
DEWPOINTS AOA 16C/ AND INCREASING DEEP SHEAR /TO AROUND 50 KT BY 00Z
THURSDAY/...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NEB/SE SD/WRN IA AND SW MN.

STRONG REGIONAL FORCING AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000
J/KG/ SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IN MDT RISK AREA. 
COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY E/NE INTO ERN IA NRN IL AND WI... EXPECT
THAT ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE MCSS. 
THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A FEW EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/BOWS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING A SEVERE THREAT INTO PARTS OF
MI BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.

GIVEN MEAN WLY MID TROPOSPHERIC WLY FLOW...DISTRIBUTION OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED DIURNAL/QG STRENGTHENING OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...THERE MAY ALSO BE A TENDENCY FOR STORM CLUSTERS
TO BACK-BUILD W ACROSS IA AND PERHAPS INTO ERN NEB WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG NRN FRINGE OF CAP ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
PLNS RIDGE.  THESE STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL/HIGH WIND AND EXCESSIVE
RAIN...DESPITE EWD PASSAGE OF MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FARTHER E/SE AND EARLIER IN THE DAY...SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG WARM
FRONT FROM MO EWD INTO IL/IND/OH...WHERE DEEP WNWLY  SHEAR WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT.

..CORFIDI.. 05/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.