[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161735
SWODY2
SPC AC 161733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
CLE 40 N LAF 50 NW COU 30 NE ICT 30 W P28 45 S DDC 15 NW LBL 25 NNW
LAA 20 E DEN 15 ENE LAR 35 SSE DGW 30 ESE DGW 25 WSW CDR 45 E AIA 10
E LBF 10 W GRI 30 WNW OMA 20 S LSE 50 NW MBL 20 ENE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT 45 S ELD
55 W MEM 30 N HOP 20 SSE ZZV 30 W HLG 30 ESE CAK 20 NNE CAK 20 WSW
CLE 40 ENE LAF 35 E SZL 15 SE PNC 20 WSW LTS 40 SE BGS 45 ESE P07
...CONT... 75 SE ELP 20 WNW HOB 30 WSW AMA 30 NNE DHT 35 ENE TAD 55
SE VEL 50 NE EKO 65 NNW LOL 20 E RBL 25 W RBL 35 ESE EKA 15 E 4BK 25
SSW ONP ...CONT... 60 N ISN 10 ESE OLF 25 N MLS 20 ENE 81V 20 NNW
MHN 30 NW BBW 40 ESE BUB 20 S SUX 25 S EAU 35 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30
WSW MSS 45 E UCA 15 E PSF 25 SSE BOS ...CONT... 30 NE ORF 15 N RDU
20 N CAE AYS 50 S GNV 25 S AGR 25 S PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES...

...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH CO...KS AND IA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON DAY 2.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MID 60 SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL MOVE NWD INTO KANSAS AND THIS
COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL RESULT IN LOW-END MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE ETA/ETAKF AND GFS GENERALLY
AGREE...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

ALTHOUGH SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY SHOW STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THAN IS
FORECAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW IA TO CNTRL
KS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR PEAK HEATING
ACROSS SW NEB...WRN KS AND ERN CO. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE
SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SRN KS AND NERN MO WITH THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NW IA...SRN MN AND NRN WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON DAY 2. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S F
ACROSS IA AND SRN WI IN RESPONSE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED OFF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR AND IT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOVING
INTO IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI. LATER AFFECTING LOWER MI...NRN IND BY
THE EVENING. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS SRN WI...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULAR STEEP. THIS MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER ACROSS SERN IA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SUPERCELL THREAT
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT WILL EXIST. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE
ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS IN THE LINE.
AN MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE ACROSS IA DURING THE EVENING...MOVING INTO
NRN IL AND SRN WI OVERNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 05/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.