[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170745
SWODY2
SPC AC 170743

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
HUL 15 ESE LCI 20 ESE BDR ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 45 E LYH 15 SE SSU
45 ENE EKN 30 W MGW 15 SSW EVV 25 WNW HRO 45 ESE GAG 25 W EHA LAA 15
SE DEN 20 WSW DGW 20 ENE COD 60 ENE BIL 35 NW MBG 50 NNE BUB 50 ESE
OMA 20 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 N BUF MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35
ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW FSM 20 E CSM 20 SE CAO 40 S LHX 45 ESE ASE
45 NNE CAG 35 SW RKS 35 NW MLF 20 E BAM 20 WSW LOL 45 ESE RBL 40 WSW
MHS 45 SSE OTH 30 W PDX 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 25 SSW GFK
20 E OTG 10 E JVL 25 NNW LAN 60 ESE OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING
FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL PLNS EAST INTO THE OH VLY/MID ATL
STATES AND NORTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN BRANCH OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS BLOCK INTENSIFIES OVER THE NE
PACIFIC.  IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF PACIFIC RIDGE...EXPECT
THAT UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST WILL ELONGATE NE/SW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN.  THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS.

BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLNS...BOTH SATELLITE
AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE /SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE SIERRA/...AND PERHAPS
ONE ADDITIONAL WEAKER IMPULSE...WILL INTERACT WITH STALLING FRONTAL
ZONE OVER ERN CO/KS AND MO ON TUESDAY.

FARTHER E...TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE
NRN AND SRN STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EXISTING LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER NEW ENG.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS SHOULD DROP
SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE TRAILING 
WRN PART BEGINS TO SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS.

...OH VLY TO INTERIOR NEW ENG AND THE MID ATL CST...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /40-50 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS AND NEW ENG ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS N OF REGION.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5
DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SEGMENTS FROM DAY ONE STORMS AND SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN AND CNTRL IL/IND/OH ENE INTO PA/NY AND INTERIOR
NEW ENG.  OTHER STORMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER PIEDMONT
SECTIONS OF VA/MD AND SE PA.  WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/... UNIDIRECTIONAL
MEAN FLOW WILL FAVOR CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
NIGHTFALL.

...MO AND KS W/NW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION INVOF STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NOW
OVER SRN NEB/NW KS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF KS AND MO.  OTHER
SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO/ERN
WY AND PERHAPS SE MT.

QUALITY OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 14C/...DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET
SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN KS/MO.  DETAILS
REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY
PASSING IMPULSES IN THE UPPER JET...AND BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT STORMS.  GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF LOW
LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE /ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL/ WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER
CNTRL AND ERN KS.  IF HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED CAP STRENGTHENING
PROVE TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...THIS THREAT COULD
EXTEND AS FAR W AS ERN CO.

STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN
THE WEST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS NWD AND
EWD INTO NEB AND PERHAPS THE DAKS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.


..NRN GRT BASIN...

..CORFIDI.. 05/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.