[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 160802
SWODY2
SPC AC 160800

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
MTC 35 SSW CGX 15 W UIN EMP 40 NE GAG 30 SW LAA 20 S DEN 25 SW DGW
55 WNW CDR 25 N IML 25 ESE GRI 20 NW EAU 55 NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN 15 WSW OLF
35 NNW MLS 35 ENE 4BQ 30 WSW VTN 25 SW YKN 20 NNW OTG 50 ESE BRD 140
NE CMX ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 45 E UCA 15 E PSF 15 S BOS ...CONT...
30 NE ORF 15 N RDU 20 N CAE AYS 45 S GNV 40 SSW AGR 20 S PBI
...CONT... 20 SE BPT 15 SSW ELD 20 WSW DYR 15 SSW SDF 20 S ZZV 20
SSW FKL 20 NE ERI 45 ESE MTC 40 SSE SBN 50 S UIN 50 NW BVO 25 NNW
LTS 25 SSE BGS 45 ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 50 N HOB 35 E TCC 10
NNW RTN 40 ENE ASE 40 ESE RKS 35 NE DPG 50 NE WMC 25 WNW RNO 30 S
RBL 45 ESE CEC 25 SSW ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS E ACROSS
PARTS OF KS AND MO INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE U.S. ON MONDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK ALONG
THE NRN BC CST.  UPPER LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE E PACIFIC S OF
THE BLOCK SHOULD PROGRESS E INTO NRN CA/SW ORE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN MODEST SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
RCKYS/HI PLNS. FARTHER E...IMPULSE NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN
SHOULD REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE ENE TO
THE UPR GRT LKS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL
DATA BOTH SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE
CNTRL/NRN PLNS IN WAKE OF GRT LKS SYSTEM...BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...AND REACH SRN MI/NRN IL
BY 12Z TUESDAY.  TRAILING WRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS KS ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND ERN CO EARLY TUESDAY.

...MID/UPR MS VLY TO UPR GRT LKS...
A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS LEFT OVER FROM DAY ONE WILL PROBABLY BE
PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE UPR
MS VLY.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN SMALL SCALE BOWS GIVEN 40+ KT
DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  BUT MEAGER
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE DAY FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA AND CNTRL/SRN WI. 
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STEEP /AROUND 6.5
DEG C PER KM/. BUT GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW /850
DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPMENT. 
ATTENDANT EMBEDDED BOWS/ROTATING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES EWD ACROSS FAR
NRN IL INTO PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MI.

...LWR MO VLY W INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING IN AN EAST-TO-WEST FASHION FROM SRN IA/NRN MO WWD INTO
CENTRAL KS...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REGIONAL CAP.  MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS AND
SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO FORM IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
NWD/WWD INTO ERN CO/WY.

COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP /NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC/ MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MEAN DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
KS/NRN MO AND SRN IA WHERE 100 MB MLCAPE MAY REACH 2000 J/KG. 
COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT
ALONG AND N OF FRONT AS WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS REGION.

..CORFIDI.. 05/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.