[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151734
SWODY2
SPC AC 151732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
PVW 45 NE CVS 45 ENE TCC 20 NW EHA 35 ENE LAA 45 ESE AKO 20 SW SNY
BFF 35 WSW CDR 40 N CDR 40 NE ATY 35 W IWD 40 N RHI 25 E RHI 15 ESE
CWA 20 SSE VOK 40 NW DBQ 30 NE DSM 15 NNW MHK GAG 40 ESE AMA 40 NNW
PVW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 35 W TVC
15 W MKE 30 E P35 25 WNW FSI 45 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 30 S DMN
15 NE TCS 35 SSE SAF 10 S RTN 25 NW LHX 25 SE DEN 40 SW LAR 45 S BPI
35 W OWY 95 SSE BNO 20 WSW BNO 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 60
NNE LWT 45 WNW MLS 45 S GDV 45 NNE Y22 10 N JMS 30 SE TVF 30 ESE
INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ECG 25 SSE AND
35 NNE MCN 25 SE MCN 10 NNW AYS 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 35 E PSX 35 SSW
SHV 40 E LIT 25 SSW PAH SDF 10 SW PKB 25 E HGR NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...A
SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NEB...ERN SD AND SRN MN. IN
ADDITION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S F IN
THE NRN PLAINS. THE 60 F ISODROSOTHERM IS LOCATED ACROSS E TX AND IT
SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REACH ERN NEB BY
SUNDAY. IF SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S F...SFC HEATING AND THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD STILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UPWARD ASCENT
WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN NEB FOR 21Z SUNDAY SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
VEERING AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGESTING A THREAT
FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS
CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM
ACROSS SERN SD...ERN NEB AND WRN IA. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURNS TO REGION AND SFC WINDS BACK SOME AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS SUPERCELLS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS ESPECIALLY AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
SD AND NEB WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SWD ALONG A SFC
TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS WILL HAVE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SEVERE AND SHOULD
WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER DARK. BUT THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND OF ASCENT
SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN MN...WI AND IA. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX.

..BROYLES.. 05/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.