[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150743
SWODY2
SPC AC 150741

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
BFF 40 WNW CDR 40 SSE AXN 35 W IWD 30 W IMT 20 N DBQ 15 NE DSM 20
WNW MHK GAG PVW 40 ENE TCC 15 WNW EHA 40 WNW GLD 45 SSW BFF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE HVR 50 E LWT 45
SSE GDV 40 NE Y22 35 SE TVF 45 E INL ...CONT... 20 NE ANJ 30 E JVL
10 SE OTM 45 SSW OJC 45 S LTS 55 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 25 S
DMN 40 W ONM 25 ENE LVS 30 SW LIC 40 SW LAR 45 S BPI 35 W OWY 40 S
BNO 55 WSW PDT 30 NE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 15 N SOP 45
N AGS 30 SE MCN AYS 20 SSW SSI ...CONT... 45 ENE PSX 15 WNW SHV 35
WSW MEM 50 NE PAH 55 NW HTS 45 WSW MRB 25 NE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS
AND UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON SUNDAY...S AND
E OF SLOWLY EVOLVING BLOCK ALONG THE BC CST.  A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THIS JET WILL CROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE RCKYS AND
PLNS DURING THE PERIOD.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES AS
FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE E PACIFIC
NEAR 40N/135W. LEAD PORTION OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE FROM WY
INTO THE ERN DAKS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING/MORE
WRN PART SHEARS E ALONG MUCH THE SAME TRACK LATER SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY.

IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT INCREASED LEE
TROUGHING E OF THE CNTRL RCKYS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.  A SURFACE
WAVE SHOULD EMERGE OVER WRN NEB EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ENE INTO THE
UPR MS VLY BY EARLY MONDAY...AHEAD OF LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE.  LEE
TROUGHING LIKELY WILL PERSIST...HOWEVER...OVER NE CO/WRN KS LATER
SUNDAY AS REMAINING PART OF UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES REGION.

...NEB/WRN IA/SRN SD INTO UPR MS VLY AND THE SRN HI PLNS...
A W/E ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN NEB/NW IA
AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF /1/ SWD MOTION OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM JET IN CANADA AND /2/ NWD
REDEVELOPMENT OF FRONT NOW STALLING IN THE LWR MS VLY. THE FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS E OF THE RCKYS.

SCATTERED AREAS OF ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDER MAY BE IN
PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD N OF FRONT OVER SD.  MEAGER
MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

LATER IN THE DAY...COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...FRONTAL UPLIFT
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB
AND PERHAPS SRN SD.  OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM
ALONG ERN BORDER OF DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING S ALONG LEE
TROUGH FROM WRN NEB TO THE SRN HI PLNS.

STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AOA 12C/
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND.  THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST IN CNTRL/ERN NEB...WHERE FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.  DEPENDING UPON RAPIDITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN...A LIMITED THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR COUPLE TORNADOES.

UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR SUNDAY
EVENING AS CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND FAIRLY LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS FAVOR STRONG COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT/FORWARD PROPAGATION E/NEWD INTO SRN MN AND WI.

..CORFIDI.. 05/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.