[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130721
SWODY2
SPC AC 130719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM COD PHP MHN AKO GUC
VEL 50 WSW BPI JAC COD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY LYH MGM 20 E GPT
...CONT... DRT ABI TUL COU MKE 50 WNW ANJ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MI/OH...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON FRIDAY...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS ON DAY2 THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS FROM LOWER MI INTO EASTERN TX. 
RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TO
PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH
ON FRIDAY...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...SOUTH TX...
ONE AREA WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY WILL BE
OVER SOUTH TX...WHERE VERY WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG FRONT OVER CENTRAL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...HOT
SURFACE TEMPS AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COULD POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS IN A FEW CELLS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IF VERTICAL SHEAR IS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

..HART.. 05/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.