[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121720
SWODY2
SPC AC 121718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
P28 35 ESE SLN 25 ENE MKC 20 WNW COU 10 WNW TBN 45 N TXK 40 SW CLL
40 NNW HDO 65 SW SJT 50 ENE BGS 25 ESE CDS 20 E GAG 35 WNW P28.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 10 S PSM
...CONT... 30 NNE SSI 35 WNW CTY ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE BGS 30
N CDS TCC ALS RKS IDA MQM 45 S LVM GCC LIC LAA 10 SE DDC CNK 35 NE
OMA 15 WNW RST 40 WNW RHI 25 NNW MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
FROM S CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING N-S OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL
MOVE EWD DURING THE DY2 PERIOD.  COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL KS AND THE OK
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THEN
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES PRIOR
TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ADVANCE SWRN HALF OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SEWD LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM SERN KS INTO NWRN TX
BY 14/00Z...THEN FROM NWRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY 14/12Z.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
LARGE HAIL WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF KS...OK AND NRN AND CENTRAL TX
DURING THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS FROM SRN KS INTO CENTRAL TX...

QUESTION FOR THIS AREA IS THE AMOUNT AND MODE OF CONVECTION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
SERN  IA AND NERN KS TO A LOW OVER NWRN OK...THEN CONTINUE AS A COLD
FRONT SWWD AND WWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.  LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KT
IS FORECAST EARLY ON FROM EXTREME S TX NWD INTO S CENTRAL KS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE.  ALSO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KT IS DEPICTED FROM THE SRN
PLATEAU INTO SWRN OK ADVANCING WELL MIXED AIR AND ENHANCING
CONFLUENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWWD
INTO W TX.  MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM SERN AZ
NEWD OVER NWRN KS AND NERN NE ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.

GIVEN CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE START OF THE OUTLOOK...WOULD
ANTICIPATE AN OVER NIGHT MCS OVER KS PLACING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK.
 SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL COULD BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD
IN AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ON THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  COLD FRONT WILL THEN
ADVANCE SEWD BY AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS DEVELOPING AN INTENSE LINE OF ACTIVITY FROM NERN OK INTO NWRN
TX.  GIVEN THAT DYNAMICS PULL NEWD BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES INITIALLY...BUT
THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE
HAIL.

...IL INTO SERN WI/SWRN LOWER MI...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD INTO NWRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO
NERN MO.  MODELS INDICATE DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AS MAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  BUT...MARGINAL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
INDICATES THAT SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...S AND SERN TX...

MORNING ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
POSSIBLY FROM AFTERNOON PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SERN TX
OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SFC COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING
LINE.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.