[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120727
SWODY2
SPC AC 120725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM END
FLV IRK UIN 10 N STL HOT 45 SE DAL BWD SJT 50 ENE BGS CDS 45 W CSM
END.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 55 E LBB
50 ESE AMA TCC ALS RKS IDA MQM 45 S LVM GCC LIC LAA 10 SE DDC CNK
SUX 10 SSW RWF HIB 60 ENE ELO ...CONT... 50 N BML 10 S PSM
...CONT... ORF CAE VLD 35 WNW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

...NORTH TX/OK/KS/MO/WRN AR...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ROTATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES DUE TO UNKNOWN EFFECTS OF DAY1
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MAIN SURFACE LOW
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM LOW INTO NORTHWEST MO.  AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF FRONT WILL BE VERY WARM/MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
SOUTHWEST MO INTO NORTHWEST TX SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 4500-5000 J/KG AND LITTLE CAP.  SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK AND
NORTH TX.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
WITH 500MB WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 35 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY1
CONVECTION SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS INTO
WESTERN AR AND NORTHEAST TX.

...WEST CENTRAL TX...
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL CAP.  HOWEVER...STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM DRT TO SPS.  IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

..HART.. 05/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.