[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 090723
SWODY2
SPC AC 090721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
3B1 10 S MWN ALB FKL FWA SPI SZL P28 LBL LAA AKO CYS DGW 81V 45 NNE
RAP 10 N MHN OLU LSE MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB LUL ESF 25
S LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL DAN AND RMG BNA
CGI 30 NNW OKC 50 W ABI SAT 40 NE CRP ...CONT... 40 E DUG 65 NNW SVC
SAF ALS ASE VEL ENV LOL MHS LMT BOI MQM 3HT 65 NNW GGW ...CONT... 65
NNW DVL MBG 10 WNW 9V9 YKN SPW EAU 10 NE IWD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PARTS OF
NY/VT/NH...

ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES ON MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF
THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  A LARGE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY2...BUT A GENERAL LACK OF
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE CONCENTRATION OF REPORTS.

...IA/NEB/KS/MO...
MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN KS
INTO SOUTHERN IA BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER
2500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS KS.  A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
A RATHER WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  MID LEVEL WINDS AND
RESULTANT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THIS
REGION.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS.

...EASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD/NEB...
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS WY/SD
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY
DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.  SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS
DURING THE EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.

...WI/IL INTO NY/VT/NH...
MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM IA ACROSS LOWER MI
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE WARM AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
QUITE VARIED ACROSS THIS REGION IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF UVVS AND
PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS
WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..HART.. 05/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.