[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091726
SWODY2
SPC AC 091724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
EFK LEB 10 W GON 20 ESE SBY 45 N RIC 20 SSW ZZV 35 SSW FDY 20 WNW
LAF 15 NNW SPI 40 N SGF 30 N BVO 15 WSW LBL 20 NW LAA 25 N DEN 35
SSE CPR 25 SW GCC 10 SSW 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 40 SW Y22 PHP 25 N BUB OMA 25
N DSM 35 NW APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW WAL 25 NE DAN
15 E SPA 40 ENE ABY 25 SE TLH ...CONT... ELP 40 E 4CR TAD 30 SSW 4FC
30 ENE CAG 50 WNW RKS ENV LOL MHS LMT BKE 50 S MSO 35 NW HLN 55 ENE
CTB ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT BIS 9V9 YKN 45 S SPW LSE 10 E MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD INTO PA/NY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NRN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM WLY
TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAIN STATES...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN RESTRICTED TO THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO KS AND THEN
NWWD BACK INTO CO.

...WRN HIGH PLAINS...
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ELY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 KT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WY. UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO ADVECT NWWD INTO THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WLY AT ONLY 25-30
KT...STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL RESULT IN 50 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL LARGE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
MAY ALSO RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS.

...CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KS/MO IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AIR MASS
SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT CAP WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATES A
THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK OF ANY UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR INDICATE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
DARK. 

...NY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT...PAST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN LIFTING THE
WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 5OS/LOWER IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
FLOW INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM LINE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.

...PA/NRN DELMARVA REGION...
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER ALOFT
THAN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
AND FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL DAMAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

..IMY.. 05/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.