[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081735
SWODY2
SPC AC 081733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
GCK 15 E GLD LBF 30 N ABR TVF 35 ESE INL CMX 70 E MQT 40 NNW PLN HTL
RFD 35 WNW OTM 25 WNW CNK 35 S DDC 35 WSW GCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN 30 W RDU
DHN 60 N PNS GLH LIT POF BWG 40 SE LUK FWA 30 NW PIA 25 NNW IRK 15
SSE CNK CDS BGS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 30 ESE DUG SOW GCN 40 SSW RKS
30 S IDA SUN S80 MSO LWT 35 SW 4BQ 30 NNE RAP 15 WSW BIS 55 NE MOT
...CONT... 25 NNW SYR 35 NW ALB 10 SSW GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP AUS 20 E MWL
ADM 45 SSE MLC 40 SW TXK 40 ESE LFK 20 SE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 35 N SHD
15 NE PIT FKL 40 NNE BFD ITH 20 SSE MSV 20 SW ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
SWWD INTO WRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTAL/ERN PA EWD INTO NJ AND
THE DELMARVA REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES....AND WEAK
FLOW ELSEWHERE. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SD EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT
LAKES/PA AREA SUN MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH.


...PA EWD INTO THE DELMARVA AREA...
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN NRN OH/SRN GREAT
LAKES AREA AS AN MCS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LOCATED NEAR WRN NY/NWRN PA AT 09/12Z...BUT STORMS MAY BE LOCATED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SWD CLOSER TO BOUNDARY LOCATION. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE A WIND THREAT SUNDAY MORNING AS CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
COMPLEX MOVING EWD AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STORMS
MOVE SEWD INTO THE DELMARVA/NJ AREA. SURFACE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NEWD AND IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
3000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIR BETWEEN 500-700 MB ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A
LINEAR SYSTEM BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH THE STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL.

...WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO WRN KS...
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE UNITED STATES BORDER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM
2500 TO 3500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND/NWRN MN IN THE MORNING ...BUT
MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP IN MN WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL
BE THE STRONGEST NEAR THE WARM/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION.  ALSO...THIS
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST COMBINATION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/INSTABILITY...WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.  HOWEVER...LCL HEIGHTS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...SO HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG
INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BE QUITE LARGE. STORMS SHOULD
SHIFT NEWD INTO WI OVER OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG FORCING LIFTS INTO
THAT AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
NEB/KS AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES DUE TO HEATING AND MIXING.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN FURTHER NORTH...
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY
LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
BY MID EVENING.

..IMY.. 05/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.