[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080730
SWODY2
SPC AC 080728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLD 25
W IML 50 NNW IML MHE AXN DLH CMX APN 40 NE MTC TOL CGX OTM FNB CNK
GLD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UCA 45
WSW ALB MSV AOO CLE ROC UCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART GFL BID
...CONT... 25 NNE ECG SOP DHN 60 N PNS GLH LIT POF BWG 40 SE LUK FWA
PIA P35 MHK CDS BGS DRT ...CONT... 30 ESE DUG SOW PGA SLC SUN 75 NNW
WMC LMT RDM PDT MSO LWT 4BQ Y22 BIS 65 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NY/PA...

...NEB TO WESTERN NY/PA...
RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ON SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
ROTATING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.  PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM NEB INTO MN/WI...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI
INTO NY/PA.  THIS AXIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE REGION HAVING A RISK
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL TRAVERSE THIS AXIS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SYSTEMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. 00Z ETA GUIDANCE
SHOWS ONE CLUSTER OVER LOWER MI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NY/PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHERN WI. 
AIRMASS HERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST A
RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  STORMS MAY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS LOWER MI.

OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN KS THROUGH EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION.

..HART.. 05/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.