[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 071726
SWODY2
SPC AC 071724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
ROC 20 SE ELM 15 S PSB 45 ESE FWA 20 SE BRL 50 WNW LWD 15 S CNK 25 S
DDC 20 NNE AMA 40 NE HOB 35 WNW HOB 20 NE ROW 20 SSW CAO 40 SE GLD
20 WNW EAR 15 SSW 9V9 40 SW REJ 30 SE GDV 65 WNW MOT 20 NNW DVL 35
NW HIB 35 NNW RHI 50 SSE ESC 25 NNE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS RUT 10 E
BOS ...CONT... 30 SSW CHS 55 WNW AND 5I3 DAY 15 ESE SPI 25 ESE STJ
20 ENE GAG 40 ESE LBB 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 E DUG TCS 45 S LVS IML
50 WNW MHN 40 WSW RAP RIW BOI 30 S ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA....

...SYNOPSIS...

THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH BELT OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE NRN TIER STATES. WEAK FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINING TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EWD. WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NERN
U.S. WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A
WARM FRONT. THE ERN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SWD INTO
THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.


...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...

STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY N OF THE E-W SURFACE FRONT
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY
EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS
OF THE OH VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MID
OR UPPER MS VALLEY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.


...NRN PLAINS...

A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN MT AND
THE DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BUT STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO LINES OR
CLUSTERS WITH TIME AS THEY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
DEEPLY MIXED INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CAROLINAS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD AND SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD SUPPORT
PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.